We have lies, stats and OCTGN 
I believe it’s total turns. The game log says, Corp turn 1, then Runner turn 2, Corp turn 3, etc. So, the game number of turns should be a cumulative amount.
No it’s player turns. Total turns are 2xTurns if winner was runner, or 2xTurns - 1 If winner was the Corp
1 Like
Oh, interesting, thanks for the clarification. The game log and stats must be different then.
Still digging around with the data, but i wanted to dig into people who were obviously training vs. NEH.
1,229 people have logged games vs. NEH, of those 157 have played against it more than 10 times. Of those 46 have a win rate > 40%, and 24 have a win rate > 50%. Need to import the Glicko data so i can look further, but I’d love to get in touch with players 8921 (72% with 25 games) and 1209 (66% on 24 games)
On the flip side, a half dozen corp players have ~100 games with win rates of 68-78%.
2425 is an interesting case of playing 70+ games, but winning less than 40% - so I’m curious to know what happened there.
1 Like
If anyone is willing to do the statistical treatment for each user ID again, that would be sweet. I’m not worried about the rating so much as just general games played, win percentage stuff. As it turns out, once I’ve found my ID number in a previous stat iteration it was quite easy to find it again.
Also Frisk, are you willing to post a spreadsheet with the usernames you’re looking at and their win percentages against NEH if we want to find ourselves? I’m actually interested how I’ve been doing besides a vague “pretty decent.”
1 Like
I don’t have usernames, just the numbers… so if you’ve got the data to figure out what your # is, you’ve also got the data to figure out what your win % is vs. NEH is.
That’s a typo, I mean post a spreadsheet with the ID numbers.
I certainly could compile all my games and sort out just the NEH games and then go through and check which ones I won. It would take a while to do manually, and I don’t have the acumen to build something to do it quicker. I just figure if you already did that for everyone and have the numbers handy, you could post it and save all of us a great deal of work. If it’s troublesome for you, no worries.
Are these stats for the top players vs the top players? I would be interested to know how NEH/RP holds up against the best players.
Yes, depending on what your definition of top player is. I used win percentage to separate them. From the beginning of my post:
““high skill” players, or those who are 1 standard deviation above the
population mean (sigma>=1) and have games >=20 played. In
addition, I’m only looking at games where both corp and runner had a
Sigma >=1 player. Dataset is limited to the post-Upstalk era, June 8
and forward. 1632 total games.”
1 Like
ok thanks and thanks for doing the stats. I’m surprised how much rp sucks in comparison to neh. How many 'high skill players are there" by your definition?
Good question.
opens dataset
runs dataset
waits for very old computer to spit out data
waits some more
reads a cracked article
Oh, here we go. 727, using my definitions. Which is, roughly speaking, 17% of the total playerbase in the dataset.
3 Likes
While it’s certainly interesting RP is so much worse than NEH with ‘good’ players playing it, if ‘good’ is 17% of the population, I suspect that means they’re just not ‘good’ enough. RP is the sort of deck where I would think less than 3-5% of players can do very well with it at all. It’s a pretty difficult deck to pilot. It’s still probably a good deal worse than NEH, but if the meta shifts to people cutting Parasites for more multi-access (or gabe), I think there will be a few good players who will start to be able to realize stronger win rates than NEH.
One thing that NEH has going for it is that the skill cap isn’t very high, so any statistical analysis done, even considering who is ‘good’, is going to give it a pretty high win rate above the rest of the IDs, because you can’t get a statistically significant amount of players without including a lot of people who aren’t actually all that ‘good’.
2 Likes
I disagree. I don’t think NEH is performing better because it has a lower skillcap, I think it just has better function (currently). I don’t believe any other deck is so much harder to pilot that it would give us the results we are seeing. If that were true, we probably would have seen a much more varied spread at Nationals, given that Nationals would be the place you would see all “good” players. Perhaps Worlds will be different, but I personally wouldn’t put money on that.
As an avid rp player I thought you might respond 
I hear this alot and I would agree that rp requires more planning and math and any poor/average player can astro train. However there are still many situations for skill and opponent anticipation in Astrobiotics. I would say the skill cap to playing the deck well achieving a high win rate is as high as it is with any deck.
There are many ways for this deck to win, sure most of them revolving around the fabled astro token, but not all are obvious. Learning all these variables and seeing the windows is something only an experienced/skilled player will be able to do. As with any deck it has a feel and rhythm, dumping agendas because you know a legwork is imminent, tuning into this takes experience and skill.
I agree and was the basis for my original interest in the comparison, for now I will be sticking with neh.
1 Like
I am not trying to say that the skill cap for NEH is low, I am just saying that you can do very well with it without reaching the skill cap, (as I suspect the vast majority of ‘good’ OCTGN players have not). By comparison, RP doesn’t begin to perform fantastically UNTIL you have come very close to the skill cap.
I don’t think this effect is enough to say that a great player will do better with RP than NEH right now, only that if the meta shifts to gun for NEH, that makes RP better, generally, as the cards that are good against one are not good against the other. ONLY at that point would I expect anyone to do better with RP than they would do with NEH.
1 Like
A little more in depth anaylsys of the NEH vs RP metagame conundrum:
(1) Multi access is pretty bad vs RP but very good vs NEH. In criminal, adding Multi Access means spending influence, and without a critical mass of Parasites, the RP matchup can become pretty bad, even for Andy.
(2) Gabe is probably the safest/best call vs NEH right now. Forcing them to protect Archives and overprotect HQ can stretch their ICE pretty thin, especially if you are Siphoning/Shutting Down/Parasiting. This aggressive style of Gabe has a very bad matchup vs a great player with RP.
(3) Noise is something people are looking to to beat NEH, especially now with Cache being a thing. RP can win or lose vs Noise, but with more aggressive scoring, I think RP does pretty well. Furthermore, if you play Enhanced Login Protocol against Noise, it’s SUPER backbreaking. They will usually have no way of negating the effect, and it’s very likely that it will last the whole game and be a blowout. I don’t think it’s an autoinclude in RP, but if Noise becomes popular, it’s really really good there.
This is spot on. I’ve even been experimenting dropping mimic and data suckers and I know others who have dropped them completely.
I think the fact that Noise or even Wizard are some of the best match-ups against both will lead to their continued rise.
I’ve seen a fair amount of scrubbed in Noise.
Could you make the datasets bigger by checking the Corp and Runner win rates separately?
You would gain a fair few players who might just be missing the overall cut, but would make it in for one side or other. Conversely, you might lose a few who do make the overall cut but have a large gap between the relative win rates of the Runner and Corp - but you probably don’t want them in the dataset anyway because those kinds of stats would suggest a significant weakness in their gameplay.
Although Keyhole caters for both quite nicely - effectively cherry-picking the good stuff while avoiding the bad. It’s probably too pricey on influence and MU for criminals, but Shaper and Anarchs should be giving it some serious thought.
Yeah, as time goes on Keyhole is becoming more and more appealing. I suppose I said that about Morning Star as well, but… Keyhole is hostable on Djinn.