How many times (on average) does a runner have to run a Caprice to beat it with 0, 1 or 2 Nisei counters on the board? Thx!
If the psi game is random (it often isn’t but in the case where you need it to be it is) then 1/3, 1/9, 1/27.
Edit: that isn’t actually what you wanted though. Sorry. I guess you need a table of clicks spent vs chance of accessing. Again it depends on how random you think the psi game is.
Yes, assume that at least one side is rolling a die.
Expected number of runs to beat just Caprice is 3 = 1 / (1/3). If you have to beat her N times the expected number of total runs is 3N.
Now for probability calculation (not expected value):
Assume you can run her 3 times. Probability of success is 1 - (2/3)^3 = 70.4%.
If the corp has a token so you have to win twice, probability of success is . (2/31/3 * 1/3 + 1/32/31/3 + 1/3*1/3) = 25.9%.
If you have to win all 3 times, it’s 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 3.7%.
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Ran some numbers. TTT222221 is the best. Looks like the difference is when they steal 3 2 1 and don’t win.
Script - I assumed TFP gets stolen 40% of the time. The approach is naive - just shuffle the deck and go through it counting up points, stop when you hit 7. I also did some simulations where the runner needs 4 or 5 points to win because they have stolen an agenda in a remote. I think we shouldn’t remove the agenda from the deck in this analysis - it is gone, but they are accessing R&D past when it was drawn, so it shouldn’t matter.
Detailed results - tldr: If runner steals nothing or a 2 pointer TTT222221 is best. If they steal a 3 pointer 8-agenda is slightly better and TTT222221 is second.
Edit: actually, not sure about the calculations for when the runner has stolen an agenda from the remote. Suppose you are playing 6 agenda Blue Sun, if you want to see what happens when the runner steals the 6pointer from a remote, it clearly doesn’t make sense to also include the 6 pointer in the deck still. Have to think about this.
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OK, so I think I was able to use your formulas to answer my question.
With 0 Nisei counters, you would need to run twice to have the odds in your favor (55%) of getting past the Caprice.
With 1 Nisei counters, you would need to run five times to have the same odds (54%).
With 2 Nisei counters, you need to focus solely on central servers. (8 runs for a 53% chance)
Does that look right?
@jrp why assume tfp gets stolen 40% of the time instead of 33%? Just curious. Also, Fwiw, if I was able to play RP in a regionals this weekend I would cut the static, reversed accounts, and play Crissium grid and another interns. I like cortex lock but don’t know how good it is. I like the security it provides when it’s in opening hand. I use pads over mhc mainly because of the higher trash cost and I don’t like the runner having an extra hand size.
@pacer - The 40% number is made up but it should be something > 33% because you might be poor or they might run twice in one turn etc.
@Slakker - Yep, I got the same answer for 1 counter 5 runs, 54% success. The easiest way to calculate it is just summing the outcomes where successes <= Nisei counters.
Some amount of the time, the RP player is strapped for cash and can’t afford to bid $2 very well. This happens less to the runner, who usually just won’t make the run if they can’t play the Psi. Also, sometimes TFP is milled or is accessed from the top of R&D, in which case the runner can make multiple attempts at the same TFP. Also, if a TFP is seen and not stolen, either by accessing it in a central and losing the Psi or by a Gift, there is a slightly higher chance it gets stolen as opposed to some other TFP that’s still sitting in a mystery location in R&D.
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I could be wrong in thinking, but it sounds like a lot of assumptions to make it to 40% without trading into account some assumptions based on how the Corp would play if they were strapped for cash. It seems too many variables are being assumed in the runners favor. I agree that a lot of the times the runner won’t run with low credits but there are a number of times the runner runs for whatever reason and didn’t have sufficient credits to play the game. Maybe there’s too much pressure, or you are trying to score and they need the funds to play that psi game, etc. I think you would have too assyme 33% for this reason so Add not too add in too many variables that could potentially create false data.
Maybe the corp being strapped for money isn’t a good reason to change the probability since the runner could also be broke or close to it, but I think that repeated accesses is definitely a reason to increase it. I feel like it’s reasonable to think that 1/10 times the runners sees a TFP it’s either on top of R&D and re-accessable that way or it’s been trashed by Keyhole or Noise or Wanton or Imp. The percent chance the runner steals a seen TFP is CERTAINLY higher than 33%.
Just to explore this avenue…Build a scoring server out of Off the Grid, “forcing” the runner to run HQ. Focus taxing ETR ICE on HQ, and at worst use a Crisium Grid. Put Net Damage ICE on R&D/Archives. If need be, put hard ETR ICE on scoring server. Cheap ICE can protect assets. I’m more curious what opinions there are out there about this theory, rather than the tweaking.
Jinteki: Replicating Perfection
Influence: 15/15
Agenda (10)
2 Braintrust
2 Fetal AI
3 NAPD Contract
3 Nisei MK II
Asset (10)
2 Jackson Howard**
2 Melange Mining Corp
1 Private Contracts
2 Shock!
3 Sundew
Upgrade (6)
2 Caprice Nisei
2 Crisium Grid**
2 Off the Grid******
Operation (5)
1 Enhanced Login Protocol**
3 Hedge Fund
1 Interns
Barrier (5)
2 Eli 1.0**
1 Himitsu-Bako
1 Wall of Static
1 Wall of Thorns
Code Gate (8)
1 Chum
3 Enigma
3 Lotus Field
1 Viper*
Sentry (5)
3 Neural Katana
2 Swordsman
If you are going for a straight Off The Grid deck, then the RP ability doesn’t really buy you anything. With an OTG strategy the runner is forced to run HQ successfully regardless of the ID. This is not saying that OTG is bad in RP, just that you could do an OTG deck with any other ID, e.g. Weyland.
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If you’re poor in RP, you already lost.
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I think Off The Grid is strong but I’m not sure it synergizes with RP since they both force the first run at a central.
I think the idea is to rez the Off The Grid after the runner makes their first run on a central, effectively making them run two centrals before they can even think about hitting remotes. I like how it allows you to protect two servers with one Caprice.
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That makes sense, but if we’re imagining a point in the game when we don’t have OTG in play, then RP still fills a role.
Might this be enhanced by an Excalibur on HQ? Certainly. I guess the strategy of the deck could be made better by whatever ID makes it toughest to run on HQ.
Thanks for your thoughts!
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So I am trying out the 8 agenda suite 3 TFP 1 Hades 3 NMKIII 1 Philotic in my RP rush deck and the last two matches I have played I have lost upon the steal of the Hades. The most recent was a last chance hail Mary through 4 ICE that left him with 2 credits to access (and I would have scored out next turn). Also, in those last two matches one game as runner was against a “The Best Deck Ever” RP, in which I finished off by stealing his Hades Fragment. Maybe NAPD’s is worth the extra deck slot? 
It’s actually enhanced by Excalibur anywhere if they faceplant it, then OTG goes up, then they’re locked out of the remote for that turn. Then you score Nisei.