Mala Tempora and True Colors OCTGN winrates

[Alexfrog]

OCTGN Winrates for Dec 16 to Feb 14.
This is the timeframe for Mala Tempora and True Colors.

[SneakySly]

I am actually a little surprised Reina is not higher then Kate, but I suspect Reina might actually be fairly difficult to build optimally.

TWIY keeps climbing higher, wow. I think the observations @hollis made are relevant:

@hollis

I really doubt this. Here are the things I think are relevant:

How much does the deck allow you to leverage your skill
How much does the deck prevent your opponent from leveraging skill
Increased Astroscript and SanSan density reduce the extent to which your opponent can make use of their individual skill; TWIY more reliably combos out, without giving the runner the ability to do anything about it.

Making News might provide more opportunities for your individual skill to matter. Maybe. Even if that is the case, my feeling is that runner is more skill-dependent than corporation. TWIY vs. MN comes down to a question of whether:

rs x TWIY > cs x MN

where:rs = runner skillcs = corporation skillTWIY = twiy’s relative impact on runner skillMN = Making New’s relative impact on corporation skill

If the left half is larger than the right half, TWIY is better. Otherwise, Making News is better.

I suspect that:1. Runner play benefits more from skill/practice than corp play2. TWIY reduces the impact of runner skill more than MN does3. TWIY and MN are comparable in terms how much they allow corporation skill to matter

With that in mind, TWIY is probably better for high level play. You prevent your opponent’s decisions from mattering to the outcome of the game. It might require less skill to pilot a TWIY fast-advance deck, but that doesn’t mean it’s worse.

[Ajar]

Are these overall winrates, or are they filtered to strong players similar to your analysis of the pre-Worlds meta? Just want to know which of the other sets of numbers to compare it to in order to get apples to apples.

I’m actually working on analyzing the OCTGN data myself. I have monthly faction winrates, although I’m thinking maybe I should take that to weekly so that I can do the expansion release windows like you’re doing. I’ve also got code that generates a Glicko rating for each player in each month. Next step is to filter out the casual / weaker players using those ratings. Probably another couple of weeks of work at least before I actually have anything to share, but I wanted you to know that in spite of the backlash on BGG, other people are still interested in not just looking at the OCTGN data, but analyzing it as well.

[Lysander]

I’m eagerly waiting for Wraparound and Corporate Shuffle for my TWIY deck. Hollis is spot-on: TWIY leaves very little opportunity to make a counterplay.

[SneakySly]

@Ajar

I’m actually working on analyzing the OCTGN data myself. I have monthly faction winrates, although I’m thinking maybe I should take that to weekly so that I can do the expansion release windows like you’re doing. I’ve also got code that generates a Glicko rating for each player in each month. Next step is to filter out the casual / weaker players using those ratings. Probably another couple of weeks of work at least before I actually have anything to share, but I wanted you to know that in spite of the backlash on BGG, other people are still interested in not just looking at the OCTGN data, but analyzing it as well.

We are very interested in looking at your results. Weekly/Monthly results sorted by Glicko is something I very much want to look at.

[Ajar]

Cool. I was actually going to email you to see if you’d like to run articles on what I find – there’s probably enough to talk about for at least 2-3. I’m approaching the data with a number of different questions, but the ID winrate stuff is kind of the foundation to make sure I get the bugs worked out, since the numbers Alex has released show roughly what ballpark they should be in for various time periods.

I work in R, and once I have usable code I’m thinking it will be a good application for me to develop a simple Shiny web app to allow other people to explore the data visually.

[SneakySly]

@Ajar

Cool. I was actually going to email you to see if you’d like to run articles on what I find – there’s probably enough to talk about for at least 2-3.

Would love to run articles on what you find! We would also be super up for hosting the eventual web app as well. Just shoot me an email once you get further along.

[Ajar]

Awesome, will do!