I have the feeling your definition of Tier 1 is different from mine. Now, you might be right -- there haven't exactly been a surplus of big tournaments recently. But I haven't seen results that I'd call Tier 1 for Shell Game, CI, Ken, or even Gabe recently.
Blue Sun might be there, I think that's very likely. It's very possible Noise is. Red Coats (and Deadcoats, I'd like to think) are possibly there, but I'd put them behind Blue Sun unless what I've seen of that is just people in the "how do I deal with this" stage that Quetzal had going.
I'd say those other lists are all very solid Tier 2 choices. This isn't meant as denigration, it's not a joke to see someone show up with one of those decklists, and they've got every chance to do well. (Tier 3 would be "you can do well with this, it's decent, but surprise and great skill will be taking a lot of credit if you win, and it's not likely to work super-well for others". Everything else doesn't get a Tier.)
That said, I haven't found enough tournament results recently to see if NEH has been pushed out -- but it's easy for things to creep in during the off-season, as it were. I'm just not sure yet that most of them will stick around for the big tournaments like Worlds, or the Store Championships next year.
I'd like it if they did, I'm just not confident they will just yet.