Terminal Directive - A Narrative Campaign Expansion for Android: Netrunner The Card Game

see here.

Result is closer to expected (74.6% chance of getting at least 1 from 3 hits in a 45 card deck with 9 draws and a mull).

Pretty sure initial sim results are slightly off.

The way it’s worded makes me think the proper calculation is
6 from a 45 card deck
5 from a 41 card deck
5 from a 41 card deck

right? You look at 6 cards, pick 4 and then shuffle two back. Then you do the normal starting hand with possibility of mulligan.

2 Likes

You’re right, should be 5 (opening hand) + 6 (initial NVRAM). Corrected in post.

1 Like

Not sure. If your procedure is the case, though, the probability shifts minimally to 71%

First I don’t think you are being anything other than honest and civil. To be honest it was a toy I did in an half and hour, mostly because I was interested and didn’t see any real numbers coming up in conversation.

Also as you implied there are a couple of places where errors may have crept in biasing my results. My guess would be an issue with my shuffle and the fact that I start with all of my true values at the beginning of my deck.

Even so I feel that at the least it shows that bios is very close to Andy for this type of consistency.

my simulation: def sim_bios(n, doubleNVRAM=False, D=45): deck = [1]*n + [0]*(D-n) #NV - Pastebin.com

results for at least one 3-of:

andy, no mulligan 0.4975 (agrees with NRDB, cool)
andy, with mulligan 0.7463
bios 0.7108
doubleBios 0.8310 (if the NVRAM stuff triggers on the original draw and the mulligan)

I tried putting together the closed form of this earlier today and got 71% for bios (but then saw the first sim results and thought “I guess I messed something up”).

So, the takeaways are qualitatively similar to @zagzagal’s simulation and @sappidus’s wolfram alpha magic: bios and andy are roughly similar in terms of early consistency. If Bios gets to do NVRAM baloney before drawing the mulligan hand, then she is significantly more consistent.

1 Like

Yes, the main thing is that we actually managed to get some real values into this discussion, which should always be welcome. Thanks for getting the ball rolling.

Since I created this to validate, I might as well post the results.

Each percent is the chance of hitting at least one in the given hit count, and mulling for it.

Generic 45 Card ID:
3: 51.5%
6: 77.8%
9: 90.5%

Generic 40 Card ID:
3: 56.2%
6: 82.2%
9: 93.3%

Andy:
3: 74.6%
6: 94.3%
9: 98.9%

Bios:
3: 71.1%
6: 92.4%
9: 98.3%

2 Likes

In terms of consistency, yes. But Bios is perpetually going to be ~3-4 clicks behind Andy (with some margin for Andy’s discards and Bios’ leftover cards in NVRAM at the end of a given game). Andy’s ability to mull for a power card is no doubt potent, but her explosive start is most of where she shines, I think.

1 Like

Let’s not neglect the link either. When cards like Macrophage (and other relevant traces) are around, it’s significant.

Or even trick decks like Nexus Andy. That 1 link goes a long way in a lot of different decks.

Well, there is one big difference between Bios and Andy.

Andy’s death clock has begun, and will be dead and buried in six months.

Bios is eternal.

5 Likes

Andy has been the go-to “good stuff” crim runner since she came out, so this might reflect a learned lesson that consistency AND a click advantage AND a link adds up to slightly-too-good. Bios gets consistency and some benefits in terms of avoiding card losses due to damage. Maybe the designers have decided that Kate has been the default “good stuff” Shaper for too long, and want to open up the choice of “generic shaper that has an econ boost” or “generic shaper that has a consistency boost.”

7 Likes

Sure, but the problem is that Kate is not rotating - which means to open up that choice, you need IDs on a power level that is at least similar to hers. I think Smoke is there; people have certainly made a lot of use of Hayley. I don’t see it happening with Bios unless there is some serious synergy with unspoiled cards.

Out of curiosity, did anyone run a sim of her consistency v. Chaos Theory’s? That’s probably a better direct comparison than Kate.

(Hi people, this is my first post on this site, which I’ve been lurking for years. You may have met me on J.net casual room, read my reviews on NRDB or discussed with me on french forum Run4games).

I’ve run a totally non-rigorous sim of setting a NVRAM with the 2 most popular Kate deck on NRDB this last Tuesday, without bothering if they were good or not. What i’ve found is that when all you have to set are copies of your triplet, it feels pointless. Diesel, Dirty Laundry and Daily Casts are real offenders. OTOH, having your Mopus, Beth and Film Critic is great, and it matters less if your best 4th choice is Clone Chip or Sure Gamble.

I have yet to play and maybe those Diesel and Casts in NVRAM are better than they sound, but it makes me think that a Bios deck should refrain to go for the classic economy and drawing engine (3 of Sure Gamble, Dirty Laundry, Diesel, Daily Casts), but could take advantage of single copy cards.

That doesn’t draw any clear game plan, tough.

8 Likes

I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

1 Like

Do you have a specific reference or information, or just speculation?

I have to say, that if FFG announced a rotation policy with nearly two years notice and then radically altered that policy before (or shortly after) it was implemented, that would be a quick way to alienate large sections of the player base.

Have you not heard the Core 2.0 rumors? At this point, most of the competitive players have heard so many rumors about Core 2.0 that I don’t think they’re going to be shocked/offended when it comes out and some core IDs like Kate, ETF, and Noise most likely rotate out.

4 Likes

Even if the purge happened and core 2 came out, I don’t know that I’d be 100% confident that Kate would rotate. She feels very much like a shaper, with strong affinity for all things digital. Even the link feels right. She is a prime example to new players of what Shapers represent. If they do make core 2 and decide to put in new IDs, I’d hope to see a new ID that embodies that taking her place.

Anyway, this is all speculation. From the perspective of us peasants, Kate will live forever.

I’m not 100% Kate will rotate, but she’s the most likely of the core runner IDs. She’s the only one who dominates her faction, and FFG tends to make these changes to attempt to promote variety. Noise is another likely one due to being a kind of weird runner for beginners.