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The Effect of Player Skill on Netrunner Win Rates


#21

some of those mala tempora numbers have to be due to low sample size, also the RP jump makes me happy (still not good enough though)


#22

The sample sizes on some of the sets are indeed too small to be useful. For example, ~1000 games overall in MT means only a few percent of 1000 for the rarely played IDs. The professor’s winrate is listed as 19% in MT. Thats not because he suddenly became over 20% worse, its because there probably were only a couple dozen games of him played, by only a few people.


#23

that’s awesome. you’re right you can tell some of those have small sample sizes, but it’s interesting to look at the trends regardless, like maybe andromeda dipped because of sweeps week (and TWIY jumped). i am a bit sad to see noise dropping :frowning: … i don’t see myself playing him again until jackson’s popularity drops (if it does)


#24

I agree. Some of samples are too short, that’s why I like overall cut more then “skilled” one for tier 2-3 identities.


#25

Sweep weeks was released in True Colors, this information is anavalible so far. I believe Andromeda’s drop is due to Power Shutdown, and TWIY gains a lot from Paper Wall and RCVP.


#26

I think that most of the effect is small sample size, and its not actually telling us much.


#28

Interesting. My perception is still that Making News is stronger than TWIY*, albeit more vulnerable to link, but TWIY is doing very well out there. Is there some crazy TWIY* deck that I haven’t heard of yet? Is TWIY* just easier for people to use thanks to less emphasis on taxing?


#29

The @hollis-style all-in TWIY rush is tighter than Making News and against a broad pool of players it’s just too fast for most of them. I suspect Making News is better against better players, but I’m not 100% sure on that.


#30

Winrate stats for Dec 16 to Feb 14 (Mala Tempora and True Colors)


#31

I really doubt this. Here are the things I think are relevant:

  1. How much does the deck allow you to leverage your skill
  2. How much does the deck prevent your opponent from leveraging skill

Increased Astroscript and SanSan density reduce the extent to which your opponent can make use of their individual skill; TWIY more reliably combos out, without giving the runner the ability to do anything about it.

Making News might provide more opportunities for your individual skill to matter. Maybe. Even if that is the case, my feeling is that runner is more skill-dependent than corporation. TWIY vs. MN comes down to a question of whether:

rs x TWIY > cs x MN

where:
rs = runner skill
cs = corporation skill
TWIY = twiy’s relative impact on runner skill
MN = Making New’s relative impact on corporation skill

If the left half is larger than the right half, TWIY is better. Otherwise, Making News is better.

I suspect that:

  1. Runner play benefits more from skill/practice than corp play
  2. TWIY reduces the impact of runner skill more than MN does
  3. TWIY and MN are comparable in terms how much they allow corporation skill to matter

With that in mind, TWIY is probably better for high level play. You prevent your opponent’s decisions from mattering to the outcome of the game. It might require less skill to pilot a TWIY fast-advance deck, but that doesn’t mean it’s worse.


Mala Tempora and True Colors OCTGN winrates
#32

Back in the Opening Moves data, TWIY was ahead in winrate across all players, but Making News gained a bit more from skill.

However, that doesnt necessarily this trend is still the case, and also the gap between the two IDs has widened recently. TWIY has gotten further ahead, so even if Making News really gains more from high skill, it still might not overtake TWIY.

It does seem pretty clear that they are both very strong IDs, and it seems pretty clear recently that, averaged across all skill levels and all opponents, TWIY is the top ID.

That said, for my personal results of playing vs strong opponents, my specific Making News list is giving me better results than my TWIY list. This probably just means that I don’t have the best TWIY secret sauce, but I have a very tuned Making News list. (After all, the collective data of everyone is a lot more important than mine).


#33

Whoa abstract maths :).

I am newer to the TWIY-rush style, so my experiences build in a certain amount of “here’s my limited experience” :). I played Making News from regionals through worlds last year with pretty good success, so I have a fair amount of experience there.

With those caveats: I lose more to better players with TWIY. I think a big piece of this is that I rotate Making News styles a lot: they all have the same core—try to score Astro quickly—but I run everything from Tag-n-Bag to Flytrap to Never Advance to Vanilla FA from that core opening. Good players seem to respect that they’re not sure what I’m trying to do for at least a little while. Bad players can sometimes “drunken master” their way right to victory because they’re unintentionally countering my build e.g. pre-emptively 2x plascreting vs. a TnB build based on 0 information, etc.

So far every good player I’ve faced with TWIY assumes I’m all-in rush and just plays versus that. Bad players get destroyed by it. I’ve killed several runners on Neural Katana of all things.

So that anecdotal data is all that I’m basing my gut feeling on. There’s no doubt TWIY is king of the hill right now.


#34

A little surprised to not read the word “mulligan” in this discussion.

The mulligan is a hugely important skill in Netrunner, and no runner gives the skilled mulligan artist more to work with than Andromeda.

With the other IDs, the decision about when to mulligan is more stark. Either you get what you need in your opening hand, or you mulligan. With Andy, the question is more nuanced. You almost inevitably get what you need, so the decision to re-draw becomes based on a much more subtle, skilled evaluation.

I’m interested in seeing the mulligan rates of high versus low skill players to see what effect Andy has on those rates.


#35

I dont believe that we have any data on mulliganing, unfortunately.


#36

I"m a bit late to the party.

I’m glad there is finally a proper research proving Gabe isn’t more skill intensive. He is the easiest runner to play by far, and how this isn’t obvious to everyone always puzzled me.

The fact that the best players flocked towards the strongest deck and skewed the data comes as no surprise. I think Andromeda was better by a larger than 2% margin though, but now with Sweeps Week in, they should be pretty close.

Andromeda isn’t just better when it comes to average result, but she is also more consistent thanks to her ability, something skilled players would surely appreciate coming to a largely unknown field and playing a mere 5 or 6 games during the swiss rounds as it were on worlds. She is less likely to get stuck with a bad draw - something that often kills good players. This matters a bit less on OCTGN, though, where people either play for kicks, practice, or in a league where you can play an unlimited number of games.