I tried that but the problem is that I don’t know how his system will be weighted from roll to roll.
Being a statistician doesn’t allow you to warp the laws of probability.
Seriously, it sounds like Psi games aren’t beating you, your Psi-playing opponent isn’t beating you, you’re beating yourselves by being so scared of Psi games that you’re avoiding them like the plague, not challenging his gameplan and letting him get away with it!
It sounds similar to the sort of Runner who is so scared of ever running an advanced Jinteki remote that they refuse to play and simply let the Corp score out.
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It doesn’t matter! If you bid randomly, you will win (as Runner) one third of the times. He can do what he likes at that stage.
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If you’re going full random it doesn’t matter.
That’s not it, we constantly play these psi games with him but we can’t keep up the economic race with him.
I’m not saying he’s unbeatable, I’ve beat him on multiple occasions. It’s just a very difficult thing to do.
Random =/= uniformly distributed
That’s actually my go-to strategy for playing against RP in tournaments. Either I get the lucky win off R&D, or I let them roll me quick so I can go take a smoke break. I’d rather just lose than go to time trying to grind it out against psi games every other round.
And that’s what we call ‘skill’.
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It’s still a die roll, he still might bet zero.
Alright clever-clogs. 
If you bid according to randomisation on a uniform probability distribution, you will win a third of your Psi games.
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I agree, Oracle May is OP #Kappa
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If the runner is bidding randomly, it still doesn’t matter that it’s not a uniform distribution.
Let’s imagine the most non-uniform distribution of all: the corp always bids 2. If the runner is bidding randomly, they’ll win 1/3 of the time.
Change this rule to any distribution of any kind and you’ll find the same thing because the corp will have to pick 1 out of 3 options for a given psi game, and the runner is picking any of those 3 at random. No matter what system you end up with you’re still getting down to that basic root of 1/3 chance to have the results match if the runner is bidding randomly.
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Something to keep in mind is that the psi game actually IS a dexterity game to a certain extent.
I was playing a guy recently who was quite new to Netrunner but is a savant with mind games. He beat me several psi games in a row as runner with me rolling a die with even distribution (seriously, I’m scared of his mind games). Frustrated, I asked him what his secret was. He said, basically, he would watch me pick and put my hand out, then bid based on how long I had taken; if I was quick, then I had bid zero or two, otherwise I had bid one. His rationale was that separating out one of the credits took more time than simply leaving both or taking both, and since part of my strategy was to bid as quickly as possible to mind-game my opponent, his strategy worked perfectly. I’ve since incorporated this strategy into my psi-game bag o’ tricks to great effect.
Moral of the story: play the person, not the theory. Also don’t bid too fast.
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I don’t think that’s true. Well, not against RP.
We all know that RPs win rate skyrockets once they score a Nisei. We have also discussed in this thread how RP’s agenda suit protects itself well and even with more psi games. Once that token is on the board the runner has an incredibly small chance of beating a good RP player. At this point the runner generally needs a huge stroke of luck on accesses. Saying that there are other servers to win on is all well and good, but well all know how huge that first nisei score is.
Also, saying the value of runs is decreased by 2/3 just doesn’t strike me as true. Forcing the runner into even a single fruitless run can mean a huge loss of tempo, which is the immediately followed by the nisei score and huge gains for the corp.
As for the whole game up until that point determining things, that I don’t disagree with you on. There is plenty that can change the outcome, but I think most of us feel like RP games are in no small part determined by those psi games… and we don’t like it. You are right in that there may be some bias in this, and there is plenty more which determines the outcome, but seldom does a mechanic make such an obviously defining moment in a game… and it feels like this moment is based around luck (to me).
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He might, but your original argument was that Caprice wasn’t skill based, and then you’re describing a guy who can beat the expected random distribution really regularly using his immense skill as a statistician. His behavior (and its mind-game effect on your and your fellows) sounds more skill intensive than pretty much any other behavior in netrunner. There is absolutely a component of chance to it, but there is when you’re running Maker’s Eye on an RnD made flush after a Jackson draw. His psi games have an element of chance, but he’s exploiting skill to improve his odds beyond the inherent randomness of the mechanic. It’s very skill based!
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But can you get into the server three times and if you do, are their any Ash or Niesei counters, that the real problem in most folks minds.
Sure, I definitely get that RP ends up feeling like the fun police (it’s not what you could call my favorite matchup, and I’ve never played as it as the corp) but that’s more due to their snowballing board state issues (Caprice + Ash + taxing ice + Nesei token with each addition making each other piece feel more oppressive) than Caprice’s randomness. As you’ve argued, certain players can make Caprice feel like a monster but they’re not doing it by rolling a die; they’re doing it by getting into other players’ heads, adjusting their odds and using the board state and player history to determine how they should play Caprice, even if they use a die to remove the certainty of predictability from it. In the hands of players who make Caprice truly oppressive, she’s not a random card: she’s her own monstrous game.
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No she is still random. The aforementioned RP player freely admits he is " just lucky with the die rolls" and that in his own words “someone will guess correctly eventually.”
He will eventually lose his little die game to someone who guesses right. It’s just sad that he freely admits he wins on random chance.
In his opinion she and the upcoming Batty aren’t good for the game and should be limited or banned. He is of the opinion that things like MK2 tokens and ash did a good enough job of keeping the runner from scoring.
that’s the thing, it’s not sad. it’s…fitting.
I agree. I think. But if you make peace with the mechanic and stop reacting emotionally to it you can make better decisions. RP hasn’t won the game when it scores MK 2.
Caprice does almost exactly reduce the value of a run by 2/3. If you pass the last ice without caprice you access the server 100% of the time. If caprice is rezzed this reduces to 33% (ish).
You have to work out if it’s worth making the run with those modified odds.
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