Well but as with any analysis, it’s limited by assumptions. I view your analysis as showing that the two are close, with the 8 agenda suite needing only a small % more accesses. From there, many other factors can push it one way or the other. For example, 3 GFI means fewer Eli which means more accesses. Also, my argument is that a 9 agenda suite is functionally faster–we end up winning earlier because we can chain out our 4/2s more efficiently. This means that the game is shorter on average, so the runner gets fewer access opportunities and therefore fewer accesses. So I don’t see one option as being universally better–we need to balance “how many accesses they need” versus “how many we allow them to have” so (imo) the math can’t do much besides pick out clear cases of crap suites, or try to compare very functionally similar suites like TTTG2222 vs GGTT2222 vs GGGT2222.
Also, I think your naive analysis of TTTG vs GGGT might be off. Here’s a post from @jrp that has some of the access numbers:
There’s a python script there, I’d like to see exact access number/variance for GG222222 as I couldn’t seem to find it when searching Stimhack. Maybe later I’ll try to learn how to run the script 