So I’m continuing to look at the data, mostly for practice/curiosity. If anyone can double check my results, that would be awesome. I constantly check for errors I’ve made and attempt to correct them when I find them.
First, I wanted to check and see if Kingsley was right and that I had made some kind of mistake. He was. I fixed my code and reran. I then also wanted to see if there was a difference between corp win rates before and after Upstalk. I’m not sure when Upstalk was released, but I think it was in early July. I’m also not sure when cards start getting play on OCTGN, so I set my time periods as “Pre” upstalk (dates before July 1) and “Post” upstalk (dates on and after July 1). Games played had to be >=20. Frequencies showed that:
Pre July 1
Corp win % for all games: 51.8
Post July 1
Corp win % for all games: 57.1
Small jump. Is it significant?
I did a logistic regression analysis to see if there was a difference in corp win rates by time period for all games.
Here are the results. Analysis shows significance, with a point estimate of 0.2166 in favor of the Post period.
I then did it again, this time limiting my dataset to games >=20 and where BOTH players had a win % >= 60%. Results also show significance, and point estimate went up to 0.3688.
Interpretation: So basically what that’s saying is that the difference in the Pre time period and Post time period was significant, and was more pronounced when players of “high ability” (win % mean plus sigma 1) were playing. The Least Squares Mean estimate is the log odds ratio. My take away from this is that something happened during the Post time period to change the rate at which Corp wins games.