Nitpick: Salzburg is in Austria, not Germany. (Although it is located right at the german-austrian border.)
oops im bad
In my defense, it was listed under the list of German regionals on the regional spreadsheet…
Likely due to German distributor covering Austria and Switzerland as well.
Yesterday I have won in Katowice, there were 18 players, we played 5 rounds Swiss and Top 4.
- @hsiale IG/Whizzard
- @Matuszczak Palana/Whizzard
- Donmakaron Palana/Hayley
- @eAdamek Making News/Leela
- Asillith NEH/Whizzard
- Marek Biotech/Whizzard
- Michał EtF/Valencia
- @Zombiak Titan/Whizzard
I guess @Jander who was TOing will soon post full info.
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80 year old list? 
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Thanks for the shout out man. I got some lucky breaks for sure. Other than Chi-lo this is the biggest tournament I’ve won and it’s my first regional so I was pretty excited.
@spags that really hurt.
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Thanks!
Up to 25 top 8s on record now, though I’m missing Pat from Cambridge’s runner ID and the 5-8 ranking from Düsseldorf. I might try to put all this up on a website that can be more easily queried, rather than just an infographic. Lots of good data here.
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In Cambridge, Pat was on Maxx.
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In the Southern California regionals, Alan Chiwaro won with Whizzard and NEH. I assume the rest of the results will be coming soon but they don’t seem to be posted yet.
would love to see the website (or just the google doc)
4th was Phillip Reynolds.
I’m sorry. I didn’t know you could feel.
You can’t [expletive] include that, it’s a [expletive] outlier. In [expletive] statistics you ALWAYS [expletive] remove the [expletive] outliers!!
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Ha, people might read that and think you were mad, not realizing the context.
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Corp side, I believe there were 6 NEH, 1 IG, 1 PE. Runner side, there was 5-6 Whizzard, 1-2 Noise, and yours truly with the only non-Anarch in the cut (Leela!). LA, OC, and SD were all represented in the cut as well.
I’m worried that Regionals results combined with Damon’s attitude towards “fixing” the game (established by the MWL) will lead to Damon and FFG focusing more on “fixing” the existing card pool rather than design looking forward. Most likely see these Regionals results as evidence of a broken meta; personally I don’t see that as the case. Ideally, the next MWL update will add perhaps 1 Anarch card to the list, ideally trading it for Yog. Corp side, the addition of Museum or MCH to the list could reign in the decks that many consider to be warping the meta.
All in all, I don’t see much alarming in the big picture. NBN remains strong, but largely by virtue of cards in the Core set. NEH’s extra influence became more valuable post-MWL, and it turns out tempo is always a good advantage to have built into your ID.
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Any chance of getting a top 8 breakdown of which players got what place with what IDs?
I love that FFG meta was an outlier. We’re such hipsters. It is glorious.
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You’re implying that I am not mad. I appreciate the sentiment.
Eekh … since I let the Twitter genie out of the bottle I might as well address it.
The FFG Regional Championship results are not an outlier, at least not in the statistical definition of the word. Here’s one possible definition of outlier, from Information Technology Laboratory
An outlier is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. In a sense, this definition leaves it up to the analyst (or a consensus process) to decide what will be considered abnormal. Before abnormal observations can be singled out, it is necessary to characterize normal observations.
As the definition points out, we need to characterize normal observations. Additionally, we need to define a distance metric. Due to time constraints I won’t go through this exercise. Also, it is quite boring. However, I will point out several relevant caveats to defining it as an outlier.
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There aren’t that many “Regional championships in 2016” events. As such there aren’t that many data points to consult when doing statistics. Fortunately, there’s a set of techniques called Bayesian statistics for dealing with such situations. I haven’t done the math but I’m highly doubtful that a Bayesian method would define the FFG championship as an outlier. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the chance for such a regionals to occur based on prior data is somewhere around 10%. One could argue that you could include Store Championships with 25 or more players in the analysis – even then I doubt the odds of a four-Criminal top 8 are lower than 10% and might be higher.
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Even qualitatively I am not convinced that a four-Criminal top 8 is even close to being considered an outlier. Off the top of my head, the Cambridge championship had two Criminals in top 8 and the Birmingham championship had three. I haven’t looked at the exact data set but I suspect that we will find other championships with two or three Criminals in the top 8. As such, having four Criminals is not such a huge leap of faith.
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I strongly suspect that deck choices for a large event are not statistically independent events. In other words, “clumps” of decks are to be expected as local players feed off each other’s decisions and testing. This makes the chances of a high-Criminal top 8 even higher, since only a small number of players are required to influence others in their area to adopt a certain build, deck, or faction.
tl;dr Having four Criminal decks in a top 8 regional championship is not an outlier.
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It’s unusual, but not really an “outlier” strictly speaking. I probably should not have used that term in my tweet if I was talking about it in the statistical sense.
Looking at all 25 of the regional top 8s that I’ve recorded, the most common runner is Whizzard (34% of all runners) and the most common corp is NEH (30% of all corps).
There have been 2 regionals that featured 0 Whizzard in the top 8: Melbourne and Minnesota.
There have been 2 regionals that features 0 NEH in the top 8: Portland and Minnesota.
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My working hypothesis is that large numbers of Crim drives NEH out of the top 8.