Yeah this is the point I made about variance. You might lose on turn 1 due to an agenda flood or unlucky R&D accesses if you played all 3s and 2s, but just as frequently you concede nothing in the early going when your agendas don't show up. The average number of points conceded will be the same, irrespective of your agenda suite (notwithstanding self-protect effects like NAPD or Future Perfect).
I see what you're saying though and "average" isn't necessarily the most instructive measure of central tendency. You're right in that the "modal" result in both cases would be different - with your choice of agendas the Runner consistently scores 1, with mine he scores 0 or 2 with equal frequency. So in your model the Runner needs a consistent number of runs, whereas in mine you will experience "swingy" losses but when you win the margin will be greater (this was certainly relevant under the old tournament scoring).
The question becomes how much extra playability does the extra deckspace give you to offset the variance? Being able to pack a few extra ICE and/or economy ops can certainly offset R&D leaks. A couple of cards is not an insignificant percentage of the deck. You only have to look at the numbers in the various NEXT Design threads to see that one ICE in the deck can make a significant impact on the number you get in your opening hand.
Netrunner is all about tempo. The Corp needs to get into phase 2 as quickly as possible, and he can only achieve that with good ICE and economy. Having more agendas increases the chances of being flooded which, although it might not concede you many points if they're all 3/1 (or 0/2 Sleepers), means you have fewer cards working for you in advancing you into the mid-game. Having useful 3/1s is all well and good, but if you can't actually make a window to score one then it's basically waste paper.
I think the main concern for me though is that playing more one-pointers guarantees that the game goes longer (which plays to the Runner more often than not) and also gives you some tricker play decisions. I totally get that playing out a 3/1 at match point is safer than a 3/2, but what about all the times your 3/1s show up before your other agendas? Do you waste resources scoring them out, or do you hold them and hope that the Runner doesn't snipe in the meantime? If you only ever plan to score one to close out a game then scoring a second one early is surplus to requirements.
If you play one-pointers then the runner must make a lot of scoring runs. He will eventually run out of one-shot surprises and access tricks (Faerie, Inside Job, Leg Work etc.), and that makes the pay-off per run or trick much lower. But by the same token, as @Narziss points out, your own tricks are limited in number as well - so your Biotics and ToLs will be comparatively less valuable. One way or the other you will need to make scoring windows and, as the game goes on, they will be harder to find.
The only disadvantage they don't have is the pay-off to the runner when stolen. But that's a double-edged sword because it's just as disadvantageous to you.
This is exactly my point and I think it favours 3/2s more than it does 3/1s. If a 3/1 is winning you the game then a blank 3/2 is just as good. In any situation where the 3/1 hasn't won you the game you now need to score another one to put yourself in the same position you would have been in had it actually been a 3/2. So, in order to make up the difference and score that extra point, the pay-off from your 3/1 has to be worth at least $3, 4 clicks and a card slot, which is what it has cost you in running an extra 3/1 as opposed to the 3/2 (and this doesn't factor in the oft-debated "click to draw"). I'm not convinced any of the 3/1s are that good.
Oh yeah, I've tried it - he's the bomb. But he's that much of a game-changer that you probably win when he hits regardless of what you forefeit. I'd ditch a 5/3 to rez him if he's guaranteed to wreck the rig because in most cases that seals the deal to close out the game at my leisure. Some Shapers can recover, but they would need to be a judgement call.
I think the only one I've ever played was False Leads - back in the day before there was much choice and more recently in Supermodernism Weyland. But False Leads is there to set up kill windows for Weyland, not so much scoring windows.
I guess I probably also played Posted Bounty right at the start.
Yeah this is really true for Jinteki. They need all the same things the other Corps need, plus all the tricks and traps. Their agendas have to work overtime. That's why Future Perfect is such a big card for them - it's just a space-saver that protects itself.
Yeah it's definitely there or there abouts, but until now Jinteki had no way to make a scoring window to ever force one through. Very potent nowadays though.