A dark horse contender is Tier 2.
It’s a good deck, and I’m not claiming otherwise when I call it that. Most good decks are Tier 2, vastly moreso than Tier 1. It’s not presence of results alone that makes a deck anything, it’s the consistency of them. There is consistently an NBN player in the top four, often more than one, at least that I’ve seen. Last cycle MN was winning more games as an ID than entire factions were.
Again, Tier 1 stuff is the stuff you need to be able to beat, no matter what, because you’ll see it more than once. Teching against Tier 2 things (PE, RP) is a good plan because people will bring variety, but any deck that consistently loses to Andy, say, or NEH? Not worth bringing. Tier 2 stuff takes advantage of that, and puts up good results, but being well-positioned is a different sort of good than raw power.
Dunno if I’m explaining myself very well here.
To put it another way: the difference between a Tier 1 and Tier 2 deck is consistent finishing placement. Some of this does boil down to popularity (which is part of why, until Blue Sun, I thought my Whizzard deck had the potential to be Tier 2, but was definitely not actually so), because the more people pore over the same lists, the more improvements they make, and the further things get pushed.
But without that push, and that consistency, Tier 2 is still a pretty good place to be, because Tier 2 always has a real chance of winning still, especially with a good player at the helm.
@Kingsley I think Blue Sun is looking like it’ll definitely be a Tier 2 deck, and I genuinely think it has the potential to be Tier 1. It seems even more frustrating to deal with than Red Coats in some aspects, and is, in my experience, pretty quick. Once people start running it through tournament gauntlets I have no doubt it’ll evolve into something very nice indeed, especially since its ability and card selection so effectively seems to hate out many Anarch builds – effectiveness against the field is a big difference between 1 and 2, to me.
ETA: Roommate just put it in much clearer terms.
Tier 2 is “I would not be surprised if this wins a fair few tournaments.”
Tier 1 is “I would be surprised if this doesn’t win a fair few tournaments.”
Whizzard or Ken winning a tournament isn’t a massive shock, generally. PE or RP, now, similar. But if Andy/NEH/MN failed to win at all for, say, twenty (or even ten, in Store Championship season) tournies in a row? I’d be taken aback. If PE doesn’t place for the next twenty tournies? Sad, but not really gobsmacked.